Potential Black Swan Events in 2024

Predicting black swan events is inherently challenging because they are, by definition, rare and unpredictable. Coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a black swan event refers to a highly improbable event with massive consequences and is often rationalized with hindsight. These events can have profound and far-reaching impacts on global economies, societies, and political landscapes. While it is impossible to foresee specific occurrences, we can speculate on areas where such events might arise in 2024, for in my lifetime, there has never been so much opportunity for such an event to occur.

Historical Black Swan Events and Their Impact

2008 Financial Crisis:

• Most analysts did not foresee the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent global financial meltdown. This crisis led to widespread economic downturns, massive unemployment, and significant changes in financial regulations worldwide. The repercussions were felt globally, leading to a decade of economic recovery efforts and shifts in economic policies.

COVID-19 Pandemic:

• The outbreak of COVID-19 in late 2019 and its rapid global spread was another black swan event that dramatically altered the world. It resulted in millions of deaths, unprecedented lockdowns, economic contractions, and a significant…