Las Vegas is Betting on Trump: How Often Are They Correct in Predicting U.S. Presidential Elections?

Political betting odds have become a staple of election season coverage, and Las Vegas, along with offshore sportsbooks, offers a real-time look at public sentiment and confidence in the candidates. Although U.S. regulations limit political betting within the country, platforms outside the U.S. maintain election records, giving us data-rich insights. Historically, betting odds have had a strong track record in predicting presidential outcomes, winning approximately 77% of the time when there’s a clear favorite. However, major upsets remind us that these odds are not infallible. This article delves into how often Vegas odds have correctly predicted election results, key examples of accurate forecasts, and surprising upsets that challenge the odds.

Betting Markets and Presidential Election Success Rate

Since the 1870s, betting markets have predicted the winner in about three-quarters of presidential elections with clear favorites. This means that in 27 out of 35 elections, the candidate with the more favorable odds has emerged victorious. Betting odds reflect probabilities and confidence, often responding swiftly to new information like economic shifts, debates, or scandals that might not immediately reflect in…