France is on the Verge of Triggering Another Global Financial Crisis

For most Brits or Americans, France conjures images of wine, baguettes, and summer vacations — not economic peril that could trigger the next global financial crisis. Yet today, France sits on a fiscal powder keg that bears an unsettling resemblance to the prelude of 2008. Back then, Greece and Portugal nearly toppled the eurozone, sending shockwaves through global finance. Now, France’s public debt is worse than either of those nations at the peak of their crises.

If France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy, stumbles, the consequences will not remain confined to Paris. French banks are deeply entwined in global markets, and the euro’s stability underpins trillions of dollars in international capital. The uncomfortable truth is this: the fate of France could again decide the fate of the world economy.

The Numbers Behind the Danger

France’s public debt has ballooned to approximately €3.35 trillion, equivalent to 114% of its GDP. This figure places it well above the EU’s official Maastricht limit of 60% and higher than Greece or Portugal when their debt troubles sparked panic in 2008–2010.

The budget deficit — about 5.8% of GDP in 2024 — remains stubbornly high despite repeated pledges of restraint. With growth sluggish (barely…